Arundel & South Downs not a ‘safe seat’ say Greens
Having been pulled out of the BBC Radio 4 PM programme’s Election Tombola last week to feature on this week’s episodes, the constituency of Arundel & South Downs located in rural West Sussex, often reported as a ‘safe seat’ for the Conservatives, will be in the spotlight. But there are other reasons this constituency has started to catch the eye of observers. Looking at votes cast in the 2023 local elections across the constituency and covering the new boundaries, the picture places the Green Party in a strong second place:
- The Green Party received 21,493 votes compared with 24,011 for the Conservatives, 13,803 for the Liberal Democrats and 2838 for the Labour Party. It should be noted that this result was with 8 seats with no Green candidate, whereas the Conservatives stood in all available seats.
- Across the council wards making up the constituency, the Green Party has 15 councillors, compared with 9 for the Conservatives, 8 for the Liberal Democrats and 0 for Labour.
As the incumbent ramps up efforts, perhaps a little too late, the Green Party has been campaigning hard for months. The appetite for new ideas and new energy can be seen in the boards and posters that have been popping up across the new boundaries of the constituency, which now stretches as far west as Midhurst. At the time of writing, a Green Party spokesperson said more than 200 boards had been erected, with more to follow.
Many people assume that the Liberal Democrats are the obvious challengers in the “blue wall” but the seat is not a target for the Liberal Democrats, who placed 4th in a recent Survation poll, although with Reform taking votes from the Conservatives on the right, they are likely to slip to 5th place. While Labour placed second in the same poll, Labour are not campaigning in Arundel & South Downs and people in the constituency are not accustomed to voting Labour. And with many disaffected Tories vowing to stay home, word on the ground is that the Green Party is set to storm to second place or perhaps better on polling day. Here is a link to the stats behind the Survation poll, which clearly show Greens vying for second place with Labour.
“It really is all to play for,” says Steve McAuliffe, Green MP candidate for Arundel & South Downs. “I believe we have a chance of taking this constituency from the Conservatives for the first time in decades. Life-long Conservative voters have voted for Green candidates in unprecedented numbers at recent local elections and on the doorstep the response is very positive.”
A hard-working community champion and environmentalist with a wealth of knowledge on local issues, McAuliffe has already shown that he is a viable option for many Conservatives. In the last 15 months he has won two elections in the affluent and ‘safe’ Tory ward of Arundel & Walberton – the second of which secured a further two Green seats and a clean sweep.